- AutorIn
- Jantke de Boer TU Dresden
- Stefan EichlerTU Dresden#IWH
- Ingmar RövekampTU Dresden
- Titel
- Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates
- Zitierfähige Url:
- https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa2-818938
- Schriftenreihe
- CEPIE Working Paper
- Bandnummer
- 03/22
- Erstveröffentlichung
- 2022
- ISSN
- 2510-1196
- Abstract (EN)
- We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate. We rationalize our results in a model where a debate victory of a protectionist candidate raises expectations about future tariffs and reduces future net exports to the US, resulting in relative depreciation of currencies with high bilateral trade integration.
- Freie Schlagwörter (DE)
- Wechselkurse, US-Präsidentschaftswahlen, TV-Debatten, Protektionismus, bilaterale Handelsintegration
- Freie Schlagwörter (EN)
- Exchange Rates, US Presidential Elections, TV Debates, Protectionism, Bilateral Trade Integration
- Klassifikation (DDC)
- 330
- Klassifikation (RVK)
- QC 000
- Publizierende Institution
- Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden
- URN Qucosa
- urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa2-818938
- Veröffentlichungsdatum Qucosa
- 28.10.2022
- Dokumenttyp
- Forschungsbericht
- Sprache des Dokumentes
- Englisch
- Lizenz / Rechtehinweis